Sunday’s issue of The Cross Check Daily puts six lead stories side by side across Al Jazeera, Democracy Now, AP, Kuwait Times and other outlets. Each story shows what everyone agrees on and where the framing differs, followed by a markets snapshot, a research-backed health tip and a trivia question.
Gunmen attack a funeral at a Greek Orthodox church in Jordan, killing at least eight
Agree: Gunmen opened fire on a funeral at a Greek Orthodox church in Hamoud village, in Jordan’s Karak governorate, on Friday. King Abdullah II vowed the “harshest penalties” for those responsible, the government declared three days of mourning, and the attackers remain at large. (Al Jazeera)
Spin check: Al Jazeera reports three masked gunmen, no claim of responsibility, and 40 injured (27 still in hospital), and says officials blame unnamed “extremists.” The wire report carried by AP via Gorge News Center says the toll rose to nine, with more than two dozen people in hospitals, citing Jordanian state television. Factual disagreement: The death toll differs: Al Jazeera, citing the Petra news agency, says eight died (seven at the scene, one hours later), while the AP report says nine. Earlier reports put it at seven. We are using “at least eight.”
Trump says he won’t hit Iran before the midterms, but “there’s a possibility I will”
Agree: Trump said he would not hit Iran again before the Nov. 3 midterms but, asked how close he is to an attack, said “there’s a possibility I will,” and added that a deal is possible if Iran will “hold the deal.” (AP via Gorge News Center)
Spin check: AP also reports Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accused Washington of disrupting talks, saying “these scoundrels broke the rules of the game.” A geopolitics roundup by Greg Lawson says envoy Tom Barrack had suggested a strike could come this weekend, and that none had been reported by early evening Saturday. Democracy Now (Oct. 23) reports UN Ambassador Mike Waltz told the Financial Times the war could last another year, and that a senior Iranian official called a large-scale bombing campaign before Israel’s Tuesday election “highly likely.” Framing difference: Timing: Trump pledges no strike before the midterms, while Barrack and the Iranian official quoted by Democracy Now point to sooner, and Waltz to a long war.
Israelis vote Tuesday as thousands rally in Tel Aviv demanding an Oct. 7 inquiry
Agree: Israelis vote Tuesday, and thousands rallied in Tel Aviv against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, demanding a commission of inquiry into the security failures before the Oct. 7, 2023 attack, which he has refused. His chief rival, Gadi Eisenkot, attended. (AP via Gorge News Center)
Spin check: The Lawson roundup, relaying the Times of Israel, says organizers put the Tel Aviv crowd at about 100,000. The same roundup says Defense Minister Israel Katz reported about 2,000 Palestinians displaced in the Hebron operation, while AP cites Hebron’s municipality saying up to 300 families left Deir Baha and two nearby neighborhoods after two soldiers were killed by gunmen. Democracy Now reports Netanyahu ordered preparations for a full West Bank lockdown and Hebron closure. Factual disagreement: Crowd size: AP says “thousands,” organizers say about 100,000. We are using “thousands” as the independent figure and have not confirmed the organizers’ number.
Brazil and Serbia hold elections today
Agree: Brazil holds its presidential runoff today between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, with the final Datafolha poll described as a statistical tie. Serbia holds parliamentary elections today as a student-led list challenges President Aleksandar Vučić. (Kuwait Times)
Spin check: Kuwait Times says Datafolha gave Bolsonaro 51% and Lula 49%, and notes polls underestimated the right before the first round; it also reports Lula’s party accuses Meta of election “interference,” which Meta denies. The Lawson roundup lists the same Datafolha result the other way, Lula 51% and Bolsonaro 49%. On Serbia, Democracy Now reports about 150,000 people rallied in Belgrade and the student movement is running 250 candidates; the roundup says that list has polled level with or ahead of Vučić’s SNS. Factual disagreement: Who leads the final Datafolha poll is reported both ways (Bolsonaro 51-49 versus Lula 51-49). We could not confirm which, so we call it a tie, which is how both describe it.
Hundreds of thousands protest across France after Macron bans non-union demonstrations
Agree: Macron has banned protests not organized by unions after weeks of student-led demonstrations, and the latest nationwide marches drew hundreds of thousands, with clashes in Paris. (Democracy Now)
Spin check: Democracy Now reports the main student union accused Macron of “trampling upon the freedom to protest,” and that a Paris rally was approved at the last minute. The Lawson roundup, citing Al Jazeera, CNN and Bloomberg, says the Interior Ministry counted 410,000 protesters nationwide (110,000 in Paris) and nearly 1,000 arrests, while the CGT union says the real number was nearly double. The AP report says more than 400,000 protested. Factual disagreement: Turnout: the Interior Ministry says 410,000, the CGT says nearly double. We are using the government figure, which AP’s “more than 400,000” matches, and noting the union’s higher claim.
Polling firm Wedgewood admits most of its polls were fabricated
Agree: Wedgewood Polling, whose surveys were picked up by data aggregators and cited by media outlets, admitted on Oct. 20 that most of its releases had no real data behind them, calling the project a “social experiment” to expose weaknesses in polling. (KMPH)
Spin check: KMPH reports The New York Times removed 15 of its polls and Decision Desk HQ removed 17, that FiftyPlusOne was investigating the firm when it came forward, and that Michigan candidate Mallory McMorrow said one poll led some donors to pull funding. Democracy Now reports Wedgewood admitted the polls were fake after FiftyPlusOne raised questions, and that McMorrow dropped out of the Michigan Senate race in June after a fake Wedgewood poll showed her support falling. Framing difference: Wedgewood calls it a “wake-up call” and blames outlets for weak vetting; FiftyPlusOne rejects that, saying it asked the firm to confirm its methodology and got no real answer. Democracy Now simply calls the polls fake.
Markets snapshot: stocks slip as Brent crude climbs to $116.72
- S&P 500: 7,623.68 (-0.5%)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,215.16 (-1.2%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 25,955.34 (-0.2%)
- Brent crude oil: $116.72 (+3.14%)
Index figures are Friday, October 23 closes from an AP market report (AP via KRMG). Brent’s $116.72 close and +3.14% gain are editor-supplied figures, not tied to a published source; the AP story (AP via Star-Advertiser) says only that Brent reached its highest level since late April after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia. Stocks fell as Thursday’s AI-financing worries lingered (the Nasdaq had its biggest one-day drop since June on Thursday), with consumer, financial and staples stocks down more than 1% and American Express off 3.7%, while energy rose 2.5% to a record. For the week the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.7%, while the Dow gained 0.4%, its third straight weekly gain. The Fed is expected to hold rates at its Wednesday statement, with investors watching for hints of a December hike.
Health & Longevity: Social connection and survival
The finding: People with stronger social relationships had a 50% greater likelihood of survival over the follow-up periods than people with weaker ones (odds ratio 1.50, 95% confidence interval 1.42 to 1.59).
The source: PLOS Medicine, July 2010: a meta-analysis of 148 studies covering 308,849 people.
Do this today: Call or meet one person you care about, even for 15 minutes, such as a walk with a friend or a phone call with a relative.
Worth knowing: These are observational findings, and the authors note that causality is not easily established, since people cannot be randomly assigned to be socially isolated. The studies varied a lot in design (heterogeneity was high), most measures did not capture relationship quality, and most data came from North America and Western Europe. This newsletter isn’t written by a medical professional and isn’t a substitute for advice from your doctor.
World Trivia
Brazil votes today in its presidential runoff. Its capital, Brasília, was built from scratch on a central plateau and inaugurated on April 21, 1960. About how long did construction take: roughly 12 months, 41 months, or 10 years?
Reveal the answer
About 41 months (a bit over three years). According to Wikipedia, Lúcio Costa won the competition for the city plan and Oscar Niemeyer designed most of its public buildings.
Edited and published by Randy Wardle. Get The Cross Check Daily free every morning, or follow @GetCrossCheck on X. See the full archive of past issues and our corrections policy.
