The ten closest Senate and governor races, plus ten House Toss-ups, each ranked by polling margin. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Voting continues until then, and early voting is already open in several of these states.
Senate and governor
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Polls close Nov. 3 (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Governor | Keisha Lance Bottoms 47.8 | Rick Jackson 47.5 | Bottoms (D) +0.3 | 7:00 pm |
| Iowa Senate | Josh Turek 47.8 | Ashley Hinson 47.2 | Turek (D) +0.6 | 10:00 pm |
| Nevada Governor | Aaron Ford 46.3 | Joe Lombardo 45.7 | Ford (D) +0.6 | 10:00 pm |
| Alaska Senate | Mary Peltola 49.7 | Dan Sullivan 47.4 | Peltola (D) +2.3 | 12:00 am (8:00 pm Alaska time) |
| Texas Senate | James Talarico 49.5 | Ken Paxton 45.8 | Talarico (D) +3.7 | 9:00 pm (8:00 pm in most of the state) |
| Kansas Senate | Adam Hamilton 49.8 | Roger Marshall 45.4 | Hamilton (D) +4.4 | 9:00 pm (8:00 pm in most counties) |
| Florida Governor | David Jolly 44.3 | Byron Donalds 48.7 | Donalds (R) +4.4 | 8:00 pm (7:00 pm in most of the state) |
| Maine Senate | Troy Jackson 50.8 | Susan Collins 46.1 | Jackson (D) +4.7 | 8:00 pm |
| Michigan Senate | Abdul El-Sayed 50.5 | Mike Rogers 45.0 | El-Sayed (D) +5.5 | 9:00 pm (8:00 pm in most of the state) |
| Minnesota Senate | Peggy Flanagan 49.4 | Michele Tafoya 43.2 | Flanagan (D) +6.2 | 9:00 pm |
House Toss-ups
Ten districts the Cook Political Report rates Toss-up. There are no district polling averages, so each row shows the latest public poll found. Many were released by a party or a campaign, and the sponsor is named.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Latest public poll | Polls close Nov. 3 (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya 46.3 | Casey Askar 45.5 | RedBox Research for A Fight Worth Having (D-aligned super PAC) (D), Oct 20-23 | 7:00 pm |
| VA-01 | Shannon Taylor 48 | Rob Wittman 47 | DCCC Analytics for the DCCC (D), Oct 24-25 | 7:00 pm |
| NC-01 | Don Davis 45.3 | Laurie Buckhout 43.5 | RedBox Research for A Fight Worth Having (D-aligned super PAC) (D), Oct 20-23 | 7:30 pm |
| CO-08 | Manny Rutinel 46 | Gabe Evans 48 | McLaughlin & Associates for Enhancing American Competitiveness (R), Sep 16-17 | 9:00 pm |
| IA-02 | Lindsay James 50 | Joe Mitchell 47 | Emerson College for RealClearPolitics, Oct 12-14 | 10:00 pm |
| MI-04 | Sean McCann 43.7 | Bill Huizenga 46.9 | RedBox Research for A Fight Worth Having (D-aligned super PAC) (D), Oct 20-23 | 8:00 pm |
| AZ-06 | JoAnna Mendoza 47.2 | Juan Ciscomani 42.6 | RedBox Research for A Fight Worth Having (D-aligned super PAC) (D), Oct 20-23 | 9:00 pm |
| TX-15 | Bobby Pulido 51 | Monica De La Cruz 44 | Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Center for the San Antonio Express-News, El País and Puente News Collaborative, Oct 13-16 | 8:00 pm |
| CA-22 | Randy Villegas 54 | David Valadao 44 | USC Dornsife / USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab (sponsor not listed, 356 likely voters), Oct 22-28 | 11:00 pm |
| NC-11 | Jamie Ager 56 | Jennifer Balkcom 43 | Emerson College (sponsor not listed, 388 likely voters), Oct 12-14 | 7:30 pm |
Pulled Nov. 3, 2026, 5:30 am ET. These are polls and polling averages, not results. A poll sponsored by one party tends to favor that party’s candidate. Sources: FiftyPlusOne (Senate and governor), Cook Political Report (House ratings).
