Thursday’s issue of The Cross Check Daily puts six lead stories side by side across the Times of Israel, The Jerusalem Post, Al Jazeera and other outlets. Each story shows what everyone agrees on and where the framing differs, followed by a markets snapshot, a research-backed health tip and a trivia question.
With about 90% of Israel’s votes counted, neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor Eisenkot’s is near the 61 seats needed
Agree: With about 90% of votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win 53 of 120 Knesset seats against 48 for Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc, with Arab-led parties at a record 19 seats, so neither side is near the 61 needed for a majority. Roughly 430,000 to 480,000 double-envelope ballots (soldiers, prisoners, diplomats) were still to be counted Thursday, and official results are due November 4. (Times of Israel)
Spin check: The Jerusalem Post reports Likud accuses the Arab parties of stealing the election and demands an investigation, while Democrats leader Golan says Netanyahu “lost” because he counts Arab parties in his total (he puts the opposition at 65 seats to Netanyahu’s 55). President Herzog urged leaders to avoid another round of elections. Al Jazeera reports turnout of 77.7%, the highest since 1999, and calls the vote largely a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership; it notes exit polls had pointed to a 51-51 deadlock, and its earlier count at 76% of votes showed 54 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, which fell to 53 as more ballots were tallied. Framing difference: The seat counts are not in dispute (the differences above are counting stages). Outlets differ on the meaning: a Netanyahu lead, an opposition win if Arab parties are counted, or an alleged “stolen” vote.
The Fed holds its target range at 3.75% to 4% on a 10-2 vote, with two officials dissenting in favor of a hike
Agree: The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point rate hike; the statement says inflation remains elevated and activity is expanding at a strong pace. (Federal Reserve)
Spin check: Yahoo Finance cites Bloomberg data putting about an 85% chance on a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting and says Chair Kevin Warsh announced one fewer policy meeting in 2027. AP (via KRMG) says stocks “held relatively steady” and that the two-year Treasury yield rose at first, then reversed as traders scaled back expectations for future rate increases. Factual disagreement: The two reports read market pricing in opposite directions: Yahoo/Bloomberg shows a hike looming in December, while AP says traders pulled back on hike bets after the meeting. Both may be true at different moments; we have not confirmed either figure independently, and the Fed’s own statement does not address market pricing.
US officials tell Middle East allies to prepare for possible renewed action against Iran after the midterms
Agree: U.S. officials have told Middle East allies to prepare for possible renewed military action against Iran after the November 3 midterms, and for possible Iranian retaliation, according to two diplomats cited by AP; President Trump has not decided whether to strike, and the U.S. has not hit Iran since early September. (AP via OPB)
Spin check: Fox News reports Trump said “anything’s possible” on post-midterm strikes, that Tehran is “tapping it along,” and that waiting for the election “is not going to help them”; it also cites the Wall Street Journal on a warning to Gulf allies about a brief but intense campaign and Reuters on war spending above $47 billion. AP adds that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran “continues to give diplomacy a chance,” that the Pentagon’s estimate to Congress is $47.1 billion, and that the war is weighing on Republican candidates over gas prices. Framing difference: Fox leads with Trump’s pressure on Iran over stalled talks; AP leads with allies bracing for fighting and Iran’s stated openness to diplomacy. The cost figure is consistent across both (about $47 billion).
The Federal Election Commission’s filing system goes offline a week before the midterms
Agree: The Federal Election Commission’s electronic filing system went offline around 10 p.m. ET Monday, about a week before the midterms, blocking filings of 24-hour and 48-hour spending reports; the agency said IT staff are working to restore service, and the FEC does not run elections, so voting is not affected. (Reuters via Cyprus Mail)
Spin check: Only one full report was available to us. The Reuters copy on Cyprus Mail says a hacker or hackers targeted the site, citing an email it saw, and quotes consultant Steven Mele: “I’ve never seen this in 26 years.” CISA and the FBI had not responded to Reuters. A daily roundup on Daily Curated News says hackers disrupted the system and delayed campaign finance disclosures. We could not find an FEC statement confirming a hack. Framing difference: Headlines say hacking caused the outage, but the FEC’s own statement only says the system is “currently offline.” The cause is attributed, not confirmed.
Trump says his administration is ending a Biden-era methane rule for oil and gas wells
Agree: President Trump said at a Lubbock, Texas, rally Tuesday that his administration is ending a Biden-era methane rule for oil and gas wells, claiming it will save companies and consumers $45 billion and unlock 210 million barrels of oil; EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin earlier previewed eliminating the “Super Emitter Program” and loosening standards for small wells. (AP via KSAT)
Spin check: Only one full report was available to us, from AP via KSAT. It reports Zeldin says the rule would have cost $18 billion, while officials in the Biden era projected it would prevent about 58 million tons of methane emissions by 2038 and deliver $98 billion in benefits by 2034 (EPA now rejects that benefit method). Fred Krupp of the Environmental Defense Fund called the rollback a “free pass” for companies, and Trump said the rule “crushed the small operators.” Factual disagreement: The money figures conflict: Trump says $45 billion saved, Zeldin says an $18 billion cost, and the original rule’s backers said $98 billion in benefits. We report each as the claim of the person making it and use none as established.
Consumer confidence rises to 91.7 in October from a near 12-year low as gasoline eases
Agree: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 91.7 in October from 84.2 in September, which had been the lowest reading since April 2014, as gasoline eased to $4.27 a gallon from $4.48 a month earlier, according to AAA. (AP via AJC)
Spin check: AP via AJC quotes Conference Board economist Fergus McCormick saying the recovery was “in line with retail gasoline prices easing,” but that confidence “remained on the long-term downward trend,” and adds that consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, employers added 29,000 jobs and unemployment was 4.2%. A roundup on Daily Curated News calls the reading a beat that reached the highest level since June; AP’s report does not make that claim, so we have not repeated it. Framing difference: “Recovery” versus “still in a long-term decline”: the same index reading is framed as good news by one outlet and as a bounce off a multi-year low by another.
Markets snapshot: stocks hold steady after the Fed, Brent settles at $115.32
- S&P 500: 7,743.98 (+0.3%)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,475.10 (+0.2%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,549.85 (+0.3%)
- Brent crude oil: $115.32 (+1.3%)
Index figures are Wednesday, October 28 closes from an AP market report (AP via KRMG). Brent’s $115.32 December settle (up $1.44) comes from Bloomberg via Rigzone and matches Eurasia Business News; the 1.3% is our calculation against the implied prior settle of about $113.88. Other outlets showed different intraday readings (Armenpress had Brent down 1.09% at $114.16, and Yahoo Finance showed futures down 0.82%), so treat intraday quotes with caution. Stocks held relatively steady after the Fed kept rates unchanged; the small-company Russell 2000 gained 0.4%. Traders are weighing the Fed’s 10-2 vote, with the next policy meeting on December 9.
Health & Longevity: coffee and healthy aging
The finding: Among 47,513 women in the Nurses’ Health Study followed for about 30 years, each additional daily cup of coffee in midlife (ages 45 to 60) was linked to a 2% to 5% higher likelihood of healthy aging, defined as reaching 70 free of 11 major chronic diseases with good physical and mental function, for up to about five small cups (roughly 2.5 modern cups) a day. Tea and decaf showed no significant link, and each additional small glass of cola was linked to a 20% to 26% lower likelihood.
The source: Sci.News report on a NUTRITION 2025 conference abstract, presented June 2, 2025 by Dr. Sara Mahdavi of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the University of Toronto.
Do this today: If you already drink coffee, a morning cup or two of regular coffee fits this research. If you drink sweetened soda, swapping one for water or coffee is the stronger takeaway.
Worth knowing: This is a preliminary conference abstract, not a published trial, and the report does not say it has been peer reviewed. It covers women only, relies on self-reported diet questionnaires, and shows association, not cause. The authors call the coffee benefit modest compared with overall healthy habits, and funding was not stated. Caffeine affects sleep, anxiety and heart rhythm differently from person to person. This newsletter isn’t written by a medical professional and isn’t a substitute for advice from your doctor, so check with your doctor before changing your diet, especially if you are pregnant or have a heart condition.
World Trivia
Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, is at the center of this week’s election count. Its size is said to follow an ancient body of scribes, sages and prophets known as the Great Assembly. How many members does the Knesset have: 100, 120, or 150?
Reveal the answer
120, which is why 61 seats make a majority. According to Wikipedia, the Knesset “numbers 120 members, after the size of the Great Assembly,” a body that tradition says existed for roughly two centuries ending around 200 BCE.
Edited and published by Randy Wardle. Get The Cross Check Daily free every morning, or follow @GetCrossCheck on X. See the full archive of past issues and our corrections policy.
